fix(newos4): predictor arithmetic, deployed-source viewer, ls text output (v4.6.57)

Acting on the "Request to the newOS4 team" packet (spaces/agando/guides/,
re-verified by its author on 4.6.56). Three verified defects fixed:

Packet 5 (predictor arithmetic) - module-predictor.js
- the persisted field named mape held a SUM while predictor-status divided by the
  paired count: renamed to errorSum, older payloads read through
- errorPct is stored raw; the 500% clamp is now render-only, so a 475x miss stays
  visible instead of being flattened to the ceiling
- predictions are floored at 1 s and marked floored; a floored prediction is
  consumed but never scored as 100% error (a 0 s prediction is not a prediction)
- observations shorter than 1.5 s (aborted/instant runs) are marked unusable and
  no longer train _findSimilar - one 0.079 s run was rounding the next prediction
  to 0 s
- status prints an unpaired and an unscored count alongside the mean

Packet 10 (verification cannot see its own fixes) - module-aiassist.js
- view_module now returns the DEPLOYED source, prefixed with file and version,
  and only falls back to the _mods copy with a "may be stale" banner. The
  unversioned _mods/<Class>.js edit cache used to shadow the deployed file
  forever, so the viewer showed pre-fix code while the bundle was new.
  Proven by seeding a stale _mods/PredictorModule.js and calling the tool.

Packet 1b (ls exits clean with no output) - module-fs.js
- ls rendered only via printClickable(), which writes straight to the DOM, so any
  capture (AI run_command, diagnostics) saw an empty result and reported "empty
  directory". It now always prints a text line and keeps the clickable chips when
  nothing is capturing.

Test: modules/test/test-predictor-accuracy.js 34/34 (new cases Q, R, S).

5 files changed, 105 insertions, 51 deletions

diff --git a/modules/core/core-bundle.js b/modules/core/core-bundle.js
index 9ac94ed..c654021 100644
--- a/modules/core/core-bundle.js
+++ b/modules/core/core-bundle.js
@@ -6391,7 +6391,13 @@ class FileSystemModule {
                 const total = filtered.reduce((s, f) => s + (f.size || 0), 0);
                 this.terminal.print('total ' + filtered.length + ' (' + total + ' bytes)', 'text-muted');
             } else {
-                this.terminal.printClickable(filtered);
+                // v4.6.57: printClickable() writes straight to the DOM, so anything that
+                // captures output (the AI run_command tool, the diagnostics sweep) saw nothing
+                // and reported "directory empty" (packet §1b). Always emit a text line.
+                const names = filtered.map(f => f.name + (f.type === 'dir' ? '/' : '')).join('  ');
+                this.terminal.print(names);
+                const capturing = !!(this.terminal._printCaptureStack && this.terminal._printCaptureStack.length);
+                if (!capturing && typeof this.terminal.printClickable === 'function') this.terminal.printClickable(filtered);
             }
         };
         this.commands['cat'] = (args) => {
@@ -11315,9 +11321,11 @@ buildSystemPrompt() {
                     case 'view_module': {
                         const modName = a.name || '';
                         const entry = this.terminal.moduleManager.moduleRegistry.find(m => m.name === modName);
-                        const code = this.terminal.fs.readFile(`_mods/${modName}.js`);
-                        if (code) return code;
                         const url = entry ? entry.url : null;
+                        // v4.6.57: deployed source FIRST. The unversioned `_mods/<Name>.js` edit cache
+                        // used to shadow it forever, so view_module returned pre-fix code while the
+                        // running bundle was new (packet §10). The cache is only a labelled fallback.
+                        const deployedVer = (typeof localStorage !== 'undefined' && localStorage.getItem('webx11_cache_ver')) || 'dev';
                         // Try registry URL first
                         if (url) {
                             try {
@@ -11325,7 +11333,7 @@ buildSystemPrompt() {
                                 if (resp.ok) {
                                     const src = await resp.text();
                                     this.terminal.fs.writeFile(`_mods/${modName}.orig.js`, src);
-                                    return src;
+                                    return '// deployed: ' + url + ' @ ' + deployedVer + '\n' + src;
                                 }
                             } catch (e) { /* fall through */ }
                         }
@@ -11347,11 +11355,15 @@ buildSystemPrompt() {
                                     if (resp.ok) {
                                         const src = await resp.text();
                                         this.terminal.fs.writeFile(`_mods/${modName}.orig.js`, src);
-                                        return src;
+                                        return '// deployed: ' + fetchUrl + ' @ ' + deployedVer + '\n' + src;
                                     }
                                 }
                             }
                         } catch (e) { /* fall through */ }
+                        const cachedSrc = this.terminal.fs.readFile(`_mods/${modName}.js`);
+                        if (cachedSrc) {
+                            return '// VFS COPY of ' + modName + '.js — may be stale (not the deployed file)\n' + cachedSrc;
+                        }
                         return JSON.stringify({ error: `Cannot find source for ${modName} — not in registry, not in modules-index.json` });
                     }
                     case 'edit_module': {
@@ -17771,8 +17783,8 @@ class PredictorModule {
         this._pending = [];         // predictions waiting for an outcome (bounded, TTL'd)
         this._predictions = 0;
         this._accuracy = { correct: 0, total: 0 };  // total = paired comparisons only
-        this._mape = 0;             // sum of capped |predicted-observed|/observed
-        this._turnsErr = 0;         // sum of |predicted turns - observed turns|
+        this._errorSum = 0;        // SUM of raw |predicted-observed|/observed (mean = /paired)
+        this._turnsErr = 0;        // sum of |predicted turns - observed turns|
         this._CONFIDENCE_THRESHOLD = 0.5;
         this._MIN_DATA_POINTS = 5;
         this._PAIR_TTL_MS = 15 * 60 * 1000;
@@ -17874,8 +17886,9 @@ class PredictorModule {
     _findSimilar(features) {
         return this._dataPoints.filter(dp => {
             if (!dp.observedDuration) return false;   // outcomes only, never predictions
-            if (!dp.features) return false;
-            return this._similarity(features, dp.features) > 0.3;
+            if (dp.usable === false) return false;    // aborted runs are not evidence
+            if (dp.features) return this._similarity(features, dp.features) > 0.3;
+            return false;
         });
     }
 
@@ -17892,7 +17905,8 @@ class PredictorModule {
                 duration: baseDuration,
                 toolTurns: baseTurns,
                 confidence: 0.1,
-                similarCount: 0
+                similarCount: 0,
+                floored: false
             };
         }
 
@@ -17903,13 +17917,16 @@ class PredictorModule {
         const confidence = Math.min(similar.length / minPts, 1) * 0.8 + 0.1;
 
         const complexityMultiplier = 1 + (features.complexity - 3) * 0.1;
-        const adjustedDuration = Math.round(avgDuration * Math.max(complexityMultiplier, 0.5));
+        const adjustedDuration = avgDuration * Math.max(complexityMultiplier, 0.5);
+        const floored = adjustedDuration < 1;          // no prediction is "0 seconds"
+        const duration = Math.max(1, Math.round(adjustedDuration));
 
         return {
-            duration: adjustedDuration,
-            toolTurns: Math.round(avgTurns),
+            duration,
+            toolTurns: Math.max(1, Math.round(avgTurns)),
             confidence: Math.min(confidence, 0.95),
-            similarCount: similar.length
+            similarCount: similar.length,
+            floored
         };
     }
 
@@ -17937,6 +17954,7 @@ class PredictorModule {
             predictedDuration: p.duration,
             predictedTurns: p.toolTurns,
             confidence: p.confidence,
+            floored: p.floored === true,
             source: source || 'loop',
             ts: Date.now()
         };
@@ -17992,18 +18010,23 @@ class PredictorModule {
             timestamp: new Date().toISOString()
         };
 
+        rec.usable = observed >= 1.5;    // aborted/instant runs say nothing about duration
+
         if (pred) {
             const absErr = Math.abs(pred.predictedDuration - observed);
             rec.predictedDuration = pred.predictedDuration;
             rec.predictedTurns = pred.predictedTurns;
-            // capped: one 15s-vs-1s miss must not poison the mean-error readout forever
-            rec.errorPct = Math.min(observed > 0 ? absErr / observed : 5, 5);
+            // RAW error — the renderer clamps, the store does not (a 475x miss must stay 475x)
+            rec.errorPct = observed > 0 ? absErr / observed : null;
             rec.turnsError = Math.abs((pred.predictedTurns || 0) - (toolTurns || 0));
-            this._accuracy.total++;
-            this._mape += rec.errorPct;
-            this._turnsErr += rec.turnsError;
-            // 30% relative, with a 3 s floor so rounding on short tasks does not flip the verdict
-            if (absErr <= Math.max(0.30 * observed, 3)) this._accuracy.correct++;
+            rec.scored = rec.usable && rec.errorPct !== null && pred.floored !== true;
+            if (rec.scored) {
+                this._accuracy.total++;
+                this._errorSum += rec.errorPct;
+                this._turnsErr += rec.turnsError;
+                // 30% relative, with a 3 s floor so rounding on short tasks does not flip the verdict
+                if (absErr <= Math.max(0.30 * observed, 3)) this._accuracy.correct++;
+            }
         }
 
         this._dataPoints.push(rec);
@@ -18019,9 +18042,12 @@ class PredictorModule {
         const paired = this._accuracy.total;
         const unpaired = this._dataPoints.filter(dp => dp.paired === false).length;
         const accPct = paired > 0 ? ((this._accuracy.correct / paired) * 100).toFixed(0) + '%' : 'n/a';
+        const meanErr = paired > 0 ? this._errorSum / paired : 0;
         const mape = paired > 0
-            ? ` · mean error ${((this._mape / paired) * 100).toFixed(0)}% · turns ±${(this._turnsErr / paired).toFixed(1)}`
+            ? ` · mean error ${(Math.min(meanErr, 5) * 100).toFixed(0)}%${meanErr > 5 ? '+' : ''}` +
+              ` · turns ±${(this._turnsErr / paired).toFixed(1)}`
             : '';
+        const unscored = this._dataPoints.filter(dp => dp.scored === false).length;
 
         this.terminal.print('📊 Predictor Status', 'header');
         this.terminal.print(`  Total data points: ${this._dataPoints.length}`, 'info');
@@ -18030,6 +18056,7 @@ class PredictorModule {
         this.terminal.print(`  Accuracy: ${accPct} (${this._accuracy.correct}/${paired} paired)${mape}`, 'info');
         this.terminal.print(`  Awaiting outcome: ${this._pending.length}`, 'info');
         this.terminal.print(`  Unpaired runs: ${unpaired}`, 'info');
+        this.terminal.print(`  Unscored pairs: ${unscored} (aborted run or floored prediction)`, 'info');
         this.terminal.print(`  Confidence threshold: ${this._CONFIDENCE_THRESHOLD}`, 'info');
         this.terminal.print(`  Min data points: ${this._MIN_DATA_POINTS}`, 'info');
         this.terminal.print(`  Pair TTL: ${Math.round(this._PAIR_TTL_MS / 60000)}m`, 'info');
@@ -18082,7 +18109,7 @@ class PredictorModule {
             if (data.v === this._SCHEMA) {
                 const acc = data.accuracy || {};
                 this._accuracy = { correct: acc.correct || 0, total: acc.total || 0 };
-                this._mape = data.mape || 0;
+                this._errorSum = (typeof data.errorSum === 'number') ? data.errorSum : (data.mape || 0);
                 this._turnsErr = data.turnsErr || 0;
                 const cfg = data.config || {};
                 if (typeof cfg.confidenceThreshold === 'number') this._CONFIDENCE_THRESHOLD = cfg.confidenceThreshold;
@@ -18093,7 +18120,7 @@ class PredictorModule {
             } else {
                 // v1 counted every observation in `total` but only some in `correct` → 0%.
                 this._accuracy = { correct: 0, total: 0 };
-                this._mape = 0;
+                this._errorSum = 0;
                 this._pending = [];
             }
         } catch (e) {
@@ -18111,7 +18138,7 @@ class PredictorModule {
                 dataPoints: this._dataPoints.slice(-500),
                 predictions: this._predictions,
                 accuracy: this._accuracy,
-                mape: this._mape,
+                errorSum: this._errorSum,
                 turnsErr: this._turnsErr,
                 config: {
                     confidenceThreshold: this._CONFIDENCE_THRESHOLD,
diff --git a/modules/core/module-aiassist.js b/modules/core/module-aiassist.js
index 83d073a..628e68a 100644
--- a/modules/core/module-aiassist.js
+++ b/modules/core/module-aiassist.js
@@ -3094,9 +3094,11 @@ buildSystemPrompt() {
                     case 'view_module': {
                         const modName = a.name || '';
                         const entry = this.terminal.moduleManager.moduleRegistry.find(m => m.name === modName);
-                        const code = this.terminal.fs.readFile(`_mods/${modName}.js`);
-                        if (code) return code;
                         const url = entry ? entry.url : null;
+                        // v4.6.57: deployed source FIRST. The unversioned `_mods/<Name>.js` edit cache
+                        // used to shadow it forever, so view_module returned pre-fix code while the
+                        // running bundle was new (packet §10). The cache is only a labelled fallback.
+                        const deployedVer = (typeof localStorage !== 'undefined' && localStorage.getItem('webx11_cache_ver')) || 'dev';
                         // Try registry URL first
                         if (url) {
                             try {
@@ -3104,7 +3106,7 @@ buildSystemPrompt() {
                                 if (resp.ok) {
                                     const src = await resp.text();
                                     this.terminal.fs.writeFile(`_mods/${modName}.orig.js`, src);
-                                    return src;
+                                    return '// deployed: ' + url + ' @ ' + deployedVer + '\n' + src;
                                 }
                             } catch (e) { /* fall through */ }
                         }
@@ -3126,11 +3128,15 @@ buildSystemPrompt() {
                                     if (resp.ok) {
                                         const src = await resp.text();
                                         this.terminal.fs.writeFile(`_mods/${modName}.orig.js`, src);
-                                        return src;
+                                        return '// deployed: ' + fetchUrl + ' @ ' + deployedVer + '\n' + src;
                                     }
                                 }
                             }
                         } catch (e) { /* fall through */ }
+                        const cachedSrc = this.terminal.fs.readFile(`_mods/${modName}.js`);
+                        if (cachedSrc) {
+                            return '// VFS COPY of ' + modName + '.js — may be stale (not the deployed file)\n' + cachedSrc;
+                        }
                         return JSON.stringify({ error: `Cannot find source for ${modName} — not in registry, not in modules-index.json` });
                     }
                     case 'edit_module': {
diff --git a/modules/core/module-fs.js b/modules/core/module-fs.js
index 686a1a6..03c3733 100644
--- a/modules/core/module-fs.js
+++ b/modules/core/module-fs.js
@@ -63,7 +63,13 @@ class FileSystemModule {
                 const total = filtered.reduce((s, f) => s + (f.size || 0), 0);
                 this.terminal.print('total ' + filtered.length + ' (' + total + ' bytes)', 'text-muted');
             } else {
-                this.terminal.printClickable(filtered);
+                // v4.6.57: printClickable() writes straight to the DOM, so anything that
+                // captures output (the AI run_command tool, the diagnostics sweep) saw nothing
+                // and reported "directory empty" (packet §1b). Always emit a text line.
+                const names = filtered.map(f => f.name + (f.type === 'dir' ? '/' : '')).join('  ');
+                this.terminal.print(names);
+                const capturing = !!(this.terminal._printCaptureStack && this.terminal._printCaptureStack.length);
+                if (!capturing && typeof this.terminal.printClickable === 'function') this.terminal.printClickable(filtered);
             }
         };
         this.commands['cat'] = (args) => {
diff --git a/modules/core/module-loader.js b/modules/core/module-loader.js
index 8b4f606..b31fd83 100644
--- a/modules/core/module-loader.js
+++ b/modules/core/module-loader.js
@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@
     // Core module bundle loaded synchronously in main.html.
     // This loader only handles version cache-busting, splash, terminal init, and optional ext modules.
 
-    const LATEST_VER = 'v4.6.56';
+    const LATEST_VER = 'v4.6.57';
     const CACHE = '?v=' + LATEST_VER;
     const stored = localStorage.getItem('webx11_cache_ver');
     if (stored !== LATEST_VER) {
diff --git a/modules/core/module-predictor.js b/modules/core/module-predictor.js
index cb1209e..c8d526d 100644
--- a/modules/core/module-predictor.js
+++ b/modules/core/module-predictor.js
@@ -11,8 +11,8 @@ class PredictorModule {
         this._pending = [];         // predictions waiting for an outcome (bounded, TTL'd)
         this._predictions = 0;
         this._accuracy = { correct: 0, total: 0 };  // total = paired comparisons only
-        this._mape = 0;             // sum of capped |predicted-observed|/observed
-        this._turnsErr = 0;         // sum of |predicted turns - observed turns|
+        this._errorSum = 0;        // SUM of raw |predicted-observed|/observed (mean = /paired)
+        this._turnsErr = 0;        // sum of |predicted turns - observed turns|
         this._CONFIDENCE_THRESHOLD = 0.5;
         this._MIN_DATA_POINTS = 5;
         this._PAIR_TTL_MS = 15 * 60 * 1000;
@@ -114,8 +114,9 @@ class PredictorModule {
     _findSimilar(features) {
         return this._dataPoints.filter(dp => {
             if (!dp.observedDuration) return false;   // outcomes only, never predictions
-            if (!dp.features) return false;
-            return this._similarity(features, dp.features) > 0.3;
+            if (dp.usable === false) return false;    // aborted runs are not evidence
+            if (dp.features) return this._similarity(features, dp.features) > 0.3;
+            return false;
         });
     }
 
@@ -132,7 +133,8 @@ class PredictorModule {
                 duration: baseDuration,
                 toolTurns: baseTurns,
                 confidence: 0.1,
-                similarCount: 0
+                similarCount: 0,
+                floored: false
             };
         }
 
@@ -143,13 +145,16 @@ class PredictorModule {
         const confidence = Math.min(similar.length / minPts, 1) * 0.8 + 0.1;
 
         const complexityMultiplier = 1 + (features.complexity - 3) * 0.1;
-        const adjustedDuration = Math.round(avgDuration * Math.max(complexityMultiplier, 0.5));
+        const adjustedDuration = avgDuration * Math.max(complexityMultiplier, 0.5);
+        const floored = adjustedDuration < 1;          // no prediction is "0 seconds"
+        const duration = Math.max(1, Math.round(adjustedDuration));
 
         return {
-            duration: adjustedDuration,
-            toolTurns: Math.round(avgTurns),
+            duration,
+            toolTurns: Math.max(1, Math.round(avgTurns)),
             confidence: Math.min(confidence, 0.95),
-            similarCount: similar.length
+            similarCount: similar.length,
+            floored
         };
     }
 
@@ -177,6 +182,7 @@ class PredictorModule {
             predictedDuration: p.duration,
             predictedTurns: p.toolTurns,
             confidence: p.confidence,
+            floored: p.floored === true,
             source: source || 'loop',
             ts: Date.now()
         };
@@ -232,18 +238,23 @@ class PredictorModule {
             timestamp: new Date().toISOString()
         };
 
+        rec.usable = observed >= 1.5;    // aborted/instant runs say nothing about duration
+
         if (pred) {
             const absErr = Math.abs(pred.predictedDuration - observed);
             rec.predictedDuration = pred.predictedDuration;
             rec.predictedTurns = pred.predictedTurns;
-            // capped: one 15s-vs-1s miss must not poison the mean-error readout forever
-            rec.errorPct = Math.min(observed > 0 ? absErr / observed : 5, 5);
+            // RAW error — the renderer clamps, the store does not (a 475x miss must stay 475x)
+            rec.errorPct = observed > 0 ? absErr / observed : null;
             rec.turnsError = Math.abs((pred.predictedTurns || 0) - (toolTurns || 0));
-            this._accuracy.total++;
-            this._mape += rec.errorPct;
-            this._turnsErr += rec.turnsError;
-            // 30% relative, with a 3 s floor so rounding on short tasks does not flip the verdict
-            if (absErr <= Math.max(0.30 * observed, 3)) this._accuracy.correct++;
+            rec.scored = rec.usable && rec.errorPct !== null && pred.floored !== true;
+            if (rec.scored) {
+                this._accuracy.total++;
+                this._errorSum += rec.errorPct;
+                this._turnsErr += rec.turnsError;
+                // 30% relative, with a 3 s floor so rounding on short tasks does not flip the verdict
+                if (absErr <= Math.max(0.30 * observed, 3)) this._accuracy.correct++;
+            }
         }
 
         this._dataPoints.push(rec);
@@ -259,9 +270,12 @@ class PredictorModule {
         const paired = this._accuracy.total;
         const unpaired = this._dataPoints.filter(dp => dp.paired === false).length;
         const accPct = paired > 0 ? ((this._accuracy.correct / paired) * 100).toFixed(0) + '%' : 'n/a';
+        const meanErr = paired > 0 ? this._errorSum / paired : 0;
         const mape = paired > 0
-            ? ` · mean error ${((this._mape / paired) * 100).toFixed(0)}% · turns ±${(this._turnsErr / paired).toFixed(1)}`
+            ? ` · mean error ${(Math.min(meanErr, 5) * 100).toFixed(0)}%${meanErr > 5 ? '+' : ''}` +
+              ` · turns ±${(this._turnsErr / paired).toFixed(1)}`
             : '';
+        const unscored = this._dataPoints.filter(dp => dp.scored === false).length;
 
         this.terminal.print('📊 Predictor Status', 'header');
         this.terminal.print(`  Total data points: ${this._dataPoints.length}`, 'info');
@@ -270,6 +284,7 @@ class PredictorModule {
         this.terminal.print(`  Accuracy: ${accPct} (${this._accuracy.correct}/${paired} paired)${mape}`, 'info');
         this.terminal.print(`  Awaiting outcome: ${this._pending.length}`, 'info');
         this.terminal.print(`  Unpaired runs: ${unpaired}`, 'info');
+        this.terminal.print(`  Unscored pairs: ${unscored} (aborted run or floored prediction)`, 'info');
         this.terminal.print(`  Confidence threshold: ${this._CONFIDENCE_THRESHOLD}`, 'info');
         this.terminal.print(`  Min data points: ${this._MIN_DATA_POINTS}`, 'info');
         this.terminal.print(`  Pair TTL: ${Math.round(this._PAIR_TTL_MS / 60000)}m`, 'info');
@@ -322,7 +337,7 @@ class PredictorModule {
             if (data.v === this._SCHEMA) {
                 const acc = data.accuracy || {};
                 this._accuracy = { correct: acc.correct || 0, total: acc.total || 0 };
-                this._mape = data.mape || 0;
+                this._errorSum = (typeof data.errorSum === 'number') ? data.errorSum : (data.mape || 0);
                 this._turnsErr = data.turnsErr || 0;
                 const cfg = data.config || {};
                 if (typeof cfg.confidenceThreshold === 'number') this._CONFIDENCE_THRESHOLD = cfg.confidenceThreshold;
@@ -333,7 +348,7 @@ class PredictorModule {
             } else {
                 // v1 counted every observation in `total` but only some in `correct` → 0%.
                 this._accuracy = { correct: 0, total: 0 };
-                this._mape = 0;
+                this._errorSum = 0;
                 this._pending = [];
             }
         } catch (e) {
@@ -351,7 +366,7 @@ class PredictorModule {
                 dataPoints: this._dataPoints.slice(-500),
                 predictions: this._predictions,
                 accuracy: this._accuracy,
-                mape: this._mape,
+                errorSum: this._errorSum,
                 turnsErr: this._turnsErr,
                 config: {
                     confidenceThreshold: this._CONFIDENCE_THRESHOLD,