path: root/modules/core/module-predictor.js

// module-predictor.js — Predictive resource allocation engine
// Analyzes historical telemetry + memory graph data to predict task duration/turns
// Commands: predict, predictor-status, predictor-config
class PredictorModule {
    constructor() {
        this.commands = {};
        this.terminal = null;
        this._dataPoints = [];
        this._predictions = 0;
        this._accuracy = { correct: 0, total: 0 };
        this._CONFIDENCE_THRESHOLD = 0.5;
        this._MIN_DATA_POINTS = 5;
        this._loaded = false;
    }

    getHelpInfo() {
        return {
            'predict': 'predict <task description> — Predict task duration, tool turns, and confidence',
            'predictor-status': 'predictor-status — Model accuracy, data points, prediction count',
            'predictor-config': 'predictor-config <key> <value> — Tune: confidence-threshold, min-data-points',
        };
    }

    registerCommands() {
        this.commands['predict'] = (args) => this.predict(args.join(' '));
        this.commands['predictor-status'] = () => this.showStatus();
        this.commands['predictor-config'] = (args) => this.setConfig(args);
    }

    init(terminal) {
        this.terminal = terminal;
        this._loadFromVFS();
        this._loaded = true;
        this.terminal.print('📊 Predictor loaded — analyzing task patterns', 'info');
    }

    // ─── Prediction Engine ───

    async predict(task) {
        if (!task) return this.terminal.print('Usage: predict <task description>', 'error');

        const startTime = performance.now();

        // Extract features
        const features = this._extractFeatures(task);

        // Find similar historical tasks
        const similar = this._findSimilar(features);

        // Generate prediction
        const prediction = this._computePrediction(similar, features);

        // Record this prediction for accuracy tracking
        const duration = ((performance.now() - startTime) / 1000).toFixed(2);

        this._predictions++;
        this._dataPoints.push({
            features,
            predictedDuration: prediction.duration,
            predictedTurns: prediction.toolTurns,
            confidence: prediction.confidence,
            similarCount: similar.length,
            timestamp: new Date().toISOString()
        });

        this._debounceSave();

        // Display result
        this.terminal.print('📈 Task Prediction', 'header');
        this.terminal.print(`  Task: ${task.substring(0, 50)}${task.length > 50 ? '...' : ''}`, 'info');

        if (prediction.confidence >= this._CONFIDENCE_THRESHOLD) {
            this.terminal.print(`  ⏱  Estimated duration: ${prediction.duration}s`, 'info');
            this.terminal.print(`  🔧 Estimated tool turns: ${prediction.toolTurns}`, 'info');
            this.terminal.print(`  📊 Confidence: ${(prediction.confidence * 100).toFixed(0)}% (based on ${similar.length} similar tasks)`, 'success');
        } else if (similar.length > 0) {
            this.terminal.print(`  ⏱  Estimated duration: ${prediction.duration}s (low confidence)`, 'warning');
            this.terminal.print(`  🔧 Tool turns: ~${prediction.toolTurns}`, 'warning');
            this.terminal.print(`  📊 Confidence: ${(prediction.confidence * 100).toFixed(0)}% — only ${similar.length} similar data point(s)`, 'warning');
            this.terminal.print('  Tip: More task data will improve predictions.', 'info');
        } else {
            this.terminal.print('  ❓ No historical data to base prediction on.', 'warning');
            this.terminal.print('  Tip: Run `orchestrate` with various tasks to build a baseline.', 'info');
            // Provide hardcoded defaults
            this.terminal.print('  Default estimate: ~30s duration, ~5 tool turns', 'info');
        }

        // If got memory graph, offer recommendations
        if (prediction.confidence >= this._CONFIDENCE_THRESHOLD && prediction.duration > 30) {
            this.terminal.print(`  💡 Recommendation: Set TTL to ${Math.ceil(prediction.duration * 1.5)}s for predictable completion`, 'info');
        }

        return prediction;
    }

    _extractFeatures(task) {
        const lower = task.toLowerCase();
        return {
            length: task.length,
            wordCount: task.split(/\s+/).length,
            hasSearch: /\b(search|find|look)\b/.test(lower),
            hasWrite: /\b(write|create|save|edit)\b/.test(lower),
            hasDelete: /\b(delete|remove|rm)\b/.test(lower),
            hasInstall: /\b(install|wpm|package)\b/.test(lower),
            hasRead: /\b(read|cat|view|list)\b/.test(lower),
            hasWeb: /\b(fetch|url|http|web)\b/.test(lower),
            hasOrchestrate: /\b(orchestrat|delegate|agent)\b/.test(lower),
            hasModule: /\b(module|edit_module|view_module)\b/.test(lower),
            complexity: Math.min(task.length / 50, 10), // 0-10 scale
            keywords: [...new Set(lower.split(/\s+/).filter(w => w.length > 3))].slice(0, 10)
        };
    }

    _findSimilar(features) {
        return this._dataPoints.filter(dp => {
            // Skip predictions (only use actual executions with observed results)
            if (!dp.observedDuration) return false;
            const f = dp.features;
            if (!f) return false;
            // Feature similarity scoring
            let score = 0;
            const matches = [
                features.hasSearch === f.hasSearch,
                features.hasWrite === f.hasWrite,
                features.hasDelete === f.hasDelete,
                features.hasInstall === f.hasInstall,
                features.hasRead === f.hasRead,
                features.hasWeb === f.hasWeb,
                features.hasOrchestrate === f.hasOrchestrate,
                features.hasModule === f.hasModule,
            ];
            score = matches.filter(Boolean).length / matches.length;
            // Keyword overlap bonus
            const kOverlap = features.keywords.filter(k => f.keywords?.includes(k)).length;
            const kScore = kOverlap / Math.max(features.keywords.length, 1);
            score = score * 0.6 + kScore * 0.4;
            return score > 0.3;
        });
    }

    _computePrediction(similar, features) {
        if (similar.length === 0) {
            // Hardcoded defaults
            let baseDuration = 15;
            let baseTurns = 3;
            if (features.hasSearch || features.hasWeb) { baseDuration = 25; baseTurns = 5; }
            if (features.hasWrite) { baseDuration = 20; baseTurns = 4; }
            if (features.hasOrchestrate) { baseDuration = 40; baseTurns = 8; }
            if (features.complexity > 5) baseDuration *= 1.5;
            return {
                duration: baseDuration,
                toolTurns: baseTurns,
                confidence: 0.1,
                similarCount: 0
            };
        }

        const avgDuration = similar.reduce((s, dp) => s + (dp.observedDuration || 30), 0) / similar.length;
        const avgTurns = similar.reduce((s, dp) => s + (dp.observedTurns || 3), 0) / similar.length;
        const confidence = Math.min(similar.length / 20, 1) * 0.8 + 0.1;

        // Apply task complexity multiplier
        const complexityMultiplier = 1 + (features.complexity - 3) * 0.1;
        const adjustedDuration = Math.round(avgDuration * Math.max(complexityMultiplier, 0.5));

        return {
            duration: adjustedDuration,
            toolTurns: Math.round(avgTurns),
            confidence: Math.min(confidence, 0.95),
            similarCount: similar.length
        };
    }

    // ─── Learning from Results ───

    recordResult(features, duration, toolTurns, success) {
        this._dataPoints.push({
            features,
            observedDuration: duration,
            observedTurns: toolTurns,
            success,
            timestamp: new Date().toISOString()
        });
        this._accuracy.total++;
        // Compare with last prediction for this feature set
        const lastPrediction = [...this._dataPoints]
            .reverse()
            .find(dp => dp.predictedDuration && dp.features?.hasSearch === features.hasSearch);
        if (lastPrediction) {
            const error = Math.abs(lastPrediction.predictedDuration - duration) / duration;
            if (error < 0.3) this._accuracy.correct++;
        }
        this._debounceSave();
    }

    // ─── Commands ───

    showStatus() {
        const actualExecutions = this._dataPoints.filter(dp => dp.observedDuration).length;
        const accPct = this._accuracy.total > 0
            ? ((this._accuracy.correct / this._accuracy.total) * 100).toFixed(0)
            : 'N/A';

        this.terminal.print('📊 Predictor Status', 'header');
        this.terminal.print(`  Total data points: ${this._dataPoints.length}`, 'info');
        this.terminal.print(`  Actual executions: ${actualExecutions}`, 'info');
        this.terminal.print(`  Predictions made: ${this._predictions}`, 'info');
        this.terminal.print(`  Accuracy: ${accPct}% (${this._accuracy.correct}/${this._accuracy.total})`, 'info');
        this.terminal.print(`  Confidence threshold: ${this._CONFIDENCE_THRESHOLD}`, 'info');
        this.terminal.print(`  Min data points: ${this._MIN_DATA_POINTS}`, 'info');
    }

    setConfig(args) {
        if (args.length < 2) return this.terminal.print('Usage: predictor-config <key> <value>', 'error');
        const key = args[0];
        const val = args[1];

        const configMap = {
            'confidence-threshold': () => {
                const n = parseFloat(val);
                if (isNaN(n) || n < 0 || n > 1) return 'Must be 0.0-1.0';
                this._CONFIDENCE_THRESHOLD = n;
                return `confidence-threshold set to ${n}`;
            },
            'min-data-points': () => {
                const n = parseInt(val);
                if (isNaN(n) || n < 1) return 'Must be >= 1';
                this._MIN_DATA_POINTS = n;
                return `min-data-points set to ${n}`;
            },
        };

        if (!configMap[key]) return this.terminal.print(`Unknown: ${key}. Valid: ${Object.keys(configMap).join(', ')}`, 'error');
        const msg = configMap[key]();
        this.terminal.print(`✅ ${msg}`, 'success');
    }

    // ─── Persistence ───

    _loadFromVFS() {
        try {
            const fs = this.terminal.fs;
            if (!fs) return;
            const data = fs.fsReadJSON('/system/metrics/predictor.json');
            if (data) {
                this._dataPoints = data.dataPoints || [];
                this._predictions = data.predictions || 0;
                this._accuracy = data.accuracy || { correct: 0, total: 0 };
            }
        } catch (e) {
            console.warn('[Predictor] Load error (fresh start):', e.message);
        }
    }

    _saveNow() {
        try {
            const fs = this.terminal.fs;
            if (!fs) return;
            if (!fs.readDir('/system/metrics')) fs.mkdirRecursive('/system/metrics');
            fs.fsWriteJSON('/system/metrics/predictor.json', {
                dataPoints: this._dataPoints.slice(-500),  // keep last 500
                predictions: this._predictions,
                accuracy: this._accuracy
            });
        } catch (e) {
            console.error('[Predictor] Save error:', e.message);
        }
    }

    _debounceSave() {
        clearTimeout(this._saveTimer);
        this._saveTimer = setTimeout(() => this._saveNow(), 3000);
    }
}

// Required for module system
if (typeof window !== 'undefined') {
    window.PredictorModule = PredictorModule;
}